20/07/2015 12h34 - Updated 20/07/2015 12h34

Projeção do mercado para inflação em 2015 sobe pela 14ª vez seguida, for 9,15%

A month ago, essa projeção do Relatório Focus, do Banco Central, estava em 8,97%.
Photo: reproduction
Photo: reproduction

Pela 14ª rodada consecutiva, a estimativa para o IPCA deste ano avançou de 9,12% da semana anterior para 9,15% now. A month ago, essa projeção do Relatório Focus, do Banco Central, estava em 8,97%. No Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, o BC havia apresentado estimativa de 9% no cenário de referência e de 9,1% usando os parâmetros de mercado.

For 2016, após duas semanas seguidas de redução, a mediana das projeções para o IPCA voltou a cair. O ponto central da pesquisa passou de 5,44% da semana passada para 5,40% now. O fim de 2016 é o foco da autoridade monetária neste momento, já que promete entregar a inflação no centro da meta daqui a pouco mais de um ano. O resultado da Focus, therefore, vai em linha com o trabalho do BC nos últimos meses. Pelos cálculos da instituição revelados no Relatório Trimestral de Inflação, o IPCA ficará em 4,8% in 2016 no cenário de referência e em 5,1% no de mercado. A luta do BC no momento é tentar convencer o mercado de que chegará ao centro da meta em 2016.

Para a inflação de curto prazo, foi visto um aumento das estimativas para o IPCA de julho na pesquisa Focus, que subiu de 0,45% for 0,50% de uma semana para outra. No caso de agosto, However, a taxa estimada permaneceu em 0,30% no period.

As projeções para os preços administrados em 2015 voltaram a subir. A mediana passou de 14,90% for 15,00% now. For 2016, a expectativa no boletim Focus apresentada hoje ficou inalterada, in 5,96%. Anyway, essas projeções são mais pessimistas que a do Banco Central. Segundo o último Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, a autoridade monetária revisou de 11% for 13,7% sua expectativa para os preços administrados em 2015. For 2016, a instituição manteve a previsão de alta de 5,3%, mesmo valor do relatório anterior, apresentado em março.

Recessão
Com a informação de que o IBC-Br ficou praticamente estável em maio depois de ter registrado quedas em março e abril, o mercado financeiro revisou para baixo suas projeções para o Produto Interno Bruto (START) from 2015. A expectativa de retração de 1,50% no Relatório de Mercado Focus foi substituída por uma queda de 1,70% now. A perspectiva de recuperação da atividade no ano que vem também segue debilitada. Passou de 0,50%, onde estava há três edições do boletim Focus, for 0,33% in this Monday.

O BC, apesar de também ter revisado para pior sua projeção, de queda de 0,6% para retração de 1,1%, segue mais otimista que o mercado. No Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, a instituição informou que a mudança ocorreu em função de piora nas perspectivas para a indústria, cuja expectativa de PIB recuou de -2,3% for -3,0%.

Segundo o BC, essa piora foi influenciada por impactos das reduções projetadas para a indústria de transformação, from -3,4% for -6%, e para a produção e distribuição de eletricidade, water and gas, from -1,4% for -5,6%, refletindo cenário de aumento da participação de termoelétricas na oferta de energia e de redução do consumo de água no primeiro trimestre do ano. Para o setor de serviços, a autoridade monetária, que até março via uma ligeira expansão de 0,1% in 2015, passou a projetar queda de 0,8%. No boletim Focus desta segunda-feira, a projeção para a produção industrial, However, foi mantida em baixa de 5,00%.

Juro
Mesmo indicadores recentes apontando para uma atividade mais fraca, o mercado financeiro manteve as expectativas para o comportamento da Selic deste ano. Fez alterações, However, para o rumo dos juros em 2016. Para os analistas, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) continua mostrando previsão de alta de meio ponto da taxa básica de juros este mês, for 14,25% ao ano – atualmente a Selic está em 13,75% per year. Também deixou inalterada a projeção de que a Selic vai encerrar 2015 in 14,50% ao ano pela terceira semana consecutiva. As for 2016, recuou de 12,25% ao ano para 12,00% a mediana das expectativas para a Selic. Thereby, a previsão volta para o patamar de um mês atrás.

Dólar
O Relatório de Mercado Focus não apresentou qualquer mudança para a trajetória do dólar neste e no próximo ano. A mediana das estimativas para o câmbio em 2015 foi mantida em R$ 3,23. To the next year, a mediana permaneceu em R$ 3,40 – mesmo patamar também verificado há um mês.

Source: Estadão

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