19/08/2015 16h36 - Updated 19/08/2015 16h36

Dificuldades de Levy para ajustar a economia são maiores que o previsto

Outra grande decepção veio da tentativa de Levy de reduzir os gastos com pensões
Photo: Ueslei Marcelino / Reuters
Photo: Ueslei Marcelino / Reuters

As dificuldades para o ministro Joaquim Levy ajustar a economia brasileira parecem ser maiores do que o previsto quando ele chegou com aura de salvador da pátria no início do 2º mandato da presidente Dilma.

As notícias de que o governo vai oferecer crédito a empresas em crise, como as do setor automobilístico, são a mais recente evidência desta realidade difícil.

As ações do Banco do Brasil despencam mais de 5% com as informações de que o governo usará bancos públicos para ajudar a conter a recessão.

Embora o aumento do crédito seja uma das medidas usadas por governos em todo o mundo para conter a recessão, o fato de a medida surgir quando a inflação segue em alta e o País ainda registra déficit fiscal não é bem visto pelo mercado.

O crédito dos bancos públicos significa que novamente o governo vai subsidiar as empresas, diz Marcelo Schmitt, gestor de portfólio na Sul America Investimentos.

“Não tem almoço grátis. Se os bancos do governo vão emprestar com juros menores, quem vai pagar a diferença é o Tesouro”.

Para o mercado, a medida não é exatamente uma mudança de idéia de Levy e nem mostra que o ministro tenha perdido totalmente o poder no governo.

However, gera desconforto o fato de Levy estar enfrentando seguidos reveses diante da falta de apoio do Congresso a um governo altamente impopular, em um ambiente contaminado pela recessão e pelas investigações da Lava Jato.

A notícia sobre o socorro às empresas chega quando o mercado ainda não esqueceu a decepção com o corte da meta fiscal, que havia sido fixada pelo próprio ministro em 1,1%, for 0,15%.

Outra grande decepção veio da tentativa de Levy de reduzir os gastos com pensões. A redução foi menor que o previsto e o Congresso ainda flexibilizou o fator previdenciário, gerando uma expectativa de aumentos ainda mais acelerados dos gastos com aposentadoria no futuro.

A vigorosa concessão de crédito público no mandato anterior de Dilma, que fazia parte da chamada “nova matriz econômica”, juntamente com juros baixos e tarifas sob controle, foram alvo de críticas de analistas do mercado.

O próprio Levy já teceu críticas a essas políticas antes e até mesmo depois de ser nomeado como sucessor de Guido Mantega.

Para Alexandre Schwartzman, ex-diretor do BC e sócio da Schwartsman & associates, a oferta de crédito às empresas é mais uma iniciativa “emergencial” do que um sinal de retorno completo à diretriz do 1º mandato de Dilma, quando o crédito público era oferecido com “maior agressividade”.

Mesmo não vendo uma reversão completa dos planos de Levy, Schwarzman mantém uma visão cética quando à capacidade de o governo realizar um ajuste econômico consistente.

For him, as medidas fiscais em discussão, mesmo quando aprovadas, são tímidas e não tocam em pontos cruciais do aumento dos gastos públicos. Sequer se discute, says, uma reforma profunda da Previdência e a mudança da regra que obriga o governo a reajustar o salário mínimo pela inflação mais a variação do PIB.

A crise política, combinada com recessão na economia, está obrigando o ministro Levy a aceitar medidas que ele não gostaria, diz Rodrigo Melo, economista-chefe da Icatu Vanguarda Administração.

A realidade está indo contra os planos do ministro de tomar medidas com a profundidade e o alcance necessários para tirar o País da crise.

“O governo é fraco, o Congresso hostil, e ainda temos o escândalo de corrupção. Este ambiente não é propício à aprovação de reformas”.

Source: Exame.com

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