17/08/2015 09h25 - Updated 17/08/2015 09h26

Focus prevê queda do PIB em 2015 e 2016

A estimativa é um recuo de 2,01% neste ano e de 0,15% in 2016.
Photo: zdravkovic/Thinkstock
Photo: zdravkovic/Thinkstock

Economistas de instituições financeiras pioraram ainda mais suas previsões de desempenho da economia brasileira e a agora estimam recuo de 2,01 por cento do Produto Interno Bruto (START) neste ano e de 0,15 por cento em 2016, mostrou nesta segunda-feira a pesquisa Focus do Banco Central.

Last week, a mediana das estimativas era de uma queda de 1,97 do PIB em 2015 e de estabilidade no ano que vem.

Os economistas também fizeram um leve ajuste na projeção de inflação em 2016, for 5,44 Percent (before 5,43 Percent), mas repetiram a previsão de 9,32 por cento para este ano, after 17 semanas seguidas de aumento.

In this context, os analistas passaram a projetar que os juros básicos devem fechar o ano que vem a nível mais baixo do que o previamente estimado.

Segundo o Focus, a mediana das estimativas para a Selic no final de 2016 it was 11,88 Percent, compared to 12 por cento no levantamento anterior.

For this year, economistas não mudaram suas previsões para a política monetária, ainda esperando que a taxa básica de juros termine no atual patamar, from 14,25 Percent.

Nos mercados de juros futuros, investidores chegaram a apostar firmemente em nova alta da Selic em setembro, diante da grave crise política que atravessa o país e do recente salto do dólar em relação ao real.

Mas essas apostas perderam força e o mercado de DIs fechou a sessão passada mostrando posições majoritárias de manutenção da taxa.

On Friday, o presidente do Banco Central, Alexandre Tombini, reiterou que manter a Selic no atual patamar por períodosuficientemente prolongadoé necessário para garantir a convergência da inflação à meta.

Source: Exame.com

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