15/09/2015 14h07 - Updated 15/09/2015 14h07

A possível volta da CPMF começa a preocupar os brasileiros

CPMF pode encarecer preço dos produtos para o consumidor.
Photo: reproduction
Photo: reproduction

In this Monday, os ministros do Planejamento, Nelson Barbosa, e da Fazenda, Joaquim Levy, anunciaram um pacote para conter o rombo nas contas do governo. Entra as medidas previstas, duas podem ter impacto direto sobre a renda do brasileiro: a volta da Contribuição Provisória sobre Movimentação Financeira (CPMF) e o aumento do imposto sobre lucro na venda de imóveis por valor superior a 1 million reais.

The mayor, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), e líderes de partidos da oposição no Congresso já sinalizaram que a aprovação da CPMF é improvável. But, por que o retorno da CPMF assusta tanto os brasileiros?

De acordo com Arthur Vieira de Moraes, agente autônomo de investimentos, como a CPMF incidiria sobre todas as transações bancárias, o imposto contribuiria para o aumento dos preços finais para o consumidor. “A CPMF tem um efeito em cascata: cada vez que o dinheiro sai de uma mão para outra ela é cobrada. Uma alíquota de 0,20% pode parecer baixa, mas o fornecedor paga, o comerciante paga e na ponta da cadeia o consumidor paga também, o que encarece os produtos”, says.

Ainda que a alíquota inicialmente proposta pelo governo seja de 0,20%, quando a CPMF vigorou entre 1997 e 2007, a alíquota inicial era de 0,25% e foi elevada para 0,38% in 2002. Segundo o jornal Valor Econômico, governadores inclusive já se manifestaram dizendo que aceitam negociar no Congresso a volta da CPMF e sua elevação a 0,38% para que a arrecadação seja compartilhada com estados e municípios.

O efeito da CPMF sobre os preços pode ser tanto maior quanto mais complexa for a produção do bem em questão. Itens manufaturados, for example, que passam por várias etapas de produção até chegar ao consumidor final, podem sofrer maior aumento de preço.

Além da provável elevação de preços, ao saber que um novo tributo incide sobre as movimentações, o brasileiro tende a segurar mais seu dinheiro, pensando duas vezes antes de realizar compras e transferências, o que pode reduzir a circulação de dinheiro e contribuir para o esfriamento da economia.

“O dinheiro é o lubrificante da economia, se ele fica mais caro é como se gerasse mais atrito na máquina, assim menos negócios são realizados”, afirma André Perfeito, economista-chefe da Gradual Investimentos.

Por causa da menor circulação de moeda, Arthur Vieira de Moraes acha que o tiro do governo pode sair pela culatra. “O governo acha que ganha com a CPMF porque vai melhorar arrecadação no curto prazo, mas a menor circulação de dinheiro é um freio grande para a economia.”

Outro efeito possível da CPMF é a inibição dos investimentos. In 2001, quando o imposto vigorava, operadores de bolsa chegaram a fazer uma greve para pedir a isenção do tributo para investimentos em ações.

In season, para fugir da CPMF, investidores passaram a comprar mais ADRs (American Depositary Receipt, its acronym in English), que são recibos de ações de empresas brasileiras negociados nas bolsas norte-americanas, aumentando as negociações no mercado de ações dos Estados Unidos em detrimento da bolsa brasileira.

André Perfeito lembra, However, que ao longo dos anos o mercado financeiro passou a contar com algumas medidas que o blindavam contra a CPMF. “Se a medida for aprovada, pode haver uma proteção maior para o mercado financeiro. But, anyway, precisamos ver se esse pacote vai passar mesmo e quais medidas seriam aprovadas. Muita água ainda vai rolar”, says.

Para estimular os investimentos na época em que a CPMF vigorava, o governo criou em 2004 a chamada conta investimento, dentro da qual os investidores podiam movimentar recursos de uma aplicação a outra com isenção da CPMF. All so, toda vez que o dinheiro era movimentado da conta investimento para a conta corrente ou vice-versa, a CPMF incidia.

A CPMF é muito ruim porque encarece o insumo básico da economia, que é o dinheiro. Mas tudo depende de como isso pode ser feito, se ela vai afetar todos os setores e qual será tamanho da alíquota. Eu não me entusiasmo muito com essas medidas, mas acho que elas são necessárias e eu confio muito no discernimento do ministro Joaquim Levy”, opina Perfeito.

A outra medida que deve impactar diretamente o bolso dos brasileiros é o aumento do imposto sobre ganho de capital (lucro) na venda de imóveis.

currently, quando o imóvel é vendido por um valor superior ao seu custo de aquisição, o vendedor paga um imposto de 15% sobre esse lucrocaso a transação não se encaixe nas regras de isenção, como a de isenção do imposto para vendas por menos de 440 thousand reais. A ideia do governo é tornar essa tributação progressiva.

According to the proposal, para imóveis de até 1 million reais, a alíquota permanece em 15%, mas para imóveis entre 1 milhão e 5 million reais, o imposto sobre o lucro passaria a ser de 20%, para imóveis de 5 a 20 million reais, sobe a 25% e chega a 30% quando o valor superar 20 million reais.

O imposto progressivo pode contribuir para o aumento da informalidade, na opinião de Arthur Vieira de Moraes, à medida que vendedores podem informar no registro de venda que o imóvel foi comprado por menos de 1 milhão de reais e solicitar uma parte do valor por fora para fugir do imposto.

Outro possível efeito do aumento do imposto sobre imóveis, segundo Moraes, é a diminuição dos preços, para que a venda se enquadre na faixa de imposto de 15%. Ainda que isso seja positivo para o comprador, que pode conseguir descontos maiores, proprietários podem optar por postergar as vendas, contribuindo ainda mais para a desaceleração do mercado imobiliário.

Source: Priscila Yazbek/ Exame.com

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