14/09/2015 12h12 - Updated 14/09/2015 12h12

Focus eleva inflação em 2016 e piora cenários de PIB e dólar

Dólar: tanto a projeção para 2015 quanto para 2016 do dólar subiram em 10 centavos.
Photo: reproduction
Photo: reproduction

Economistas de instituições financeiras deixaram inalteradas as estimativas para a taxa básica de juros no final deste ano e no próximo, mas pioraram a projeção de inflação para 2016 e as perspectivas sobre a economia e o dólar, dias depois da agência de classificação de risco Standard & Poor’s rebaixar o rating do Brasil.

Pesquisa Focus do Banco Central divulgada nesta segunda-feira mostrou que a estimativa para a alta do IPCA para 2016 agora é de avanço de 5,64 Percent, Against 5,58 por cento na semana anterior, sexta piora seguida e afastando-se ainda mais da meta de 4,5 Percent, que tem tolerância de 2 pontos percentuais para mais ou menos.

For this year, a projeção caiu em 0,01 percentage point, a 9,28 Percent.

A inflação ao consumidor no Brasil desacelerou com força em agosto, for 0,22 Percent, mas manteve-se acima de 9,5 por cento em 12 months, no momento em que crescem os riscos associados ao dólar.

No Focus, tanto a projeção para 2015 quanto para 2016 do dólar subiram em 10 centavos, respectivamente para 3,70 e 3,80 real.

O próprio BC detectou recente aumento de riscos que têm afetado os preços dos ativos, reforçando a mensagem sobre a necessidade de uma postura vigilante em meio ao período de ajustes na economia, abrindo o caminho para subir os juros básicos.

O Focus desta última semana foi fechado dois dias depois de a agência de classificação de risco Standard & Poor’s anunciar, on Wednesday, o corte da nota do Brasil, tirando do país o selo de grau de investimento.

No levantamento, foram mantidas as expectativas para a taxa básica de juros Selic, from 14,25 por cento ao final deste ano e de 12,00 por cento no fim de 2016.

Os analistas consultados também pioraram suas projeções para a economia, vendo agora contração em 2015 from 2,55 Percent, Against 2,44 por cento na pesquisa anterior. For 2016 a previsão de retração do Produto Interno Bruto (START) agora é de 0,60 Percent, sobre 0,50 Percent.

Source: Exame.com

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