Focus survey of the Central Bank shows worsening inflationinflation projection for 2016 tolerance limit exceeded 6,5%.
The Focus survey by the Central Bank (BC) showed further deterioration in projections for inflation and analysts point out that the monetary authority will have to act decisively if you must contain expectations and deliver the price index extended consumer (HICP) in the center of the target at the end of 2017, as has been promising.
The projection for the IPCA 2016 it went from 6,93% for 7,00%, that is, off the top of the tolerance band limit, from 6,5%, within which the central bank aims to contain the pace of price rises this year. For 2017, the weather went from 5,20% for 5,40%, increasingly distant from the center point of the target, from 4,5%. “These figures reflect the great challenge that lies ahead BC and reinforce the need Copom take action”, says the chief economist at Garde Asset Management, Daniel Weeks.
Still in Focus, the positive surprise was with the projections for the domestic product Bruno (IPB). The expectation for this year remained at -2,99%, while for 2017 rose from +0,86% gross for +1,00%, even with the Selic rate for the end of next year with advanced 12,75% for 12,88%. Many of the forecasts entered by agents in Focus are outdated and GDP have fewer participants than inflation. Besides that, are often not the same institutions that make estimates for these two indicators.