08/02/2016 11h11 - Updated 8/02/2016 11h11

Oito dos nove principais programas sociais do governo perderam recursos em 2015

O cenário para 2016 aponta mais retração de programas que são símbolo do governo.
Photo: Alina Souza/Especial Palácio Piratini/Fotos Públicas
Photo: Alina Souza/Especial Palácio Piratini/Fotos Públicas

Oito dos nove principais programas sociais que entraram em vigor ou tiveram seu auge nos governos Lula e Dilma perderam recursos em 2015, segundo levantamento feito com base em dados do Orçamento da União. Nesse universo, sete também registraram queda no número de beneficiários. O cenário para 2016 aponta mais retração de programas que são símbolo do governo, situação que fortalece a estratégia da oposição de fazer embate político com os petistas na área social.

Um agravante é a inflação, que alcançou os dois dígitos em dezembro e registrou a maior alta acumulada desde 2002. Thus, até programas que tiveram mais orçamento, in nominal terms, viram seu valor ser corroído e, in practice, registraram perda real em relação a 2014. The Bolsa Família, for example, has received 1 bilhão de reais a mais em 2015. Corrigido pela inflação, However, o valor é 4,7% menor do que em 2014. Este também é o caso dos programas Brasil Sorridente e Pronaf.

Novos cortes foram agendados para 2016. No Orçamento aprovado em dezembro, o Pronatec caiu 44% compared to the previous year. O Minha Casa Minha Vida sofreu corte de 58%. Last week, a presidente Dilma Rousseff assumiu pela primeira vez que não será possível atingir a meta de entregar 3 milhões de residências na terceira fase do programa.

O governo pretende revisar os programas sociais e já admite descontinuar alguns deles. O contingenciamento com cortes definitivos para o Orçamento de 2016 será anunciado depois do carnaval. Integrantes da equipe econômica asseguraram, However, que Bolsa Família, Fies e Minha Casa Minha Vida serão poupados.

Além de potencial combustível para a impopularidade do governo em ano de eleições municipais, os cortes tendem a dificultar a relação com partidos aliados, entre eles o próprio PT, que tenta manter sua base de apoio social em meio à crise econômica. As legendas resistem em encampar medidas impopulares no Congresso, como a recriação da CPMF e a reforma da Previdência, temendo a repercussão perante o eleitor. Com a redução de recursos para a área social, o cenário para o governo se torna ainda mais adverso.

The government leader in the House, José Guimarães (FOR WHAT), sustenta que o impacto dos cortes em 2016 não será tão expressivo quanto o de 2015. “Os programas sociais são a alma de nossos governos e não serão fragilizados. In this year, começamos com uma nova agenda”, said. Ele não teme que os cortes gerem uma ação pró-impeachment. “A população sabe que a sua vida melhorou nos últimos anos, therefore, não temos que temer mobilização social.
A oposição, on the other hand, vê sua estratégia fortalecida. Para rivalizar com os petistas, o PSDB pretende lançar em março uma pauta própria com foco no segmento social.

A reportagem utilizou dados orçamentários oferecidos pelos ministérios responsáveis por cada programa avaliado. Os valores foram corrigidos pela média anual do Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (HICP), que mede a inflação oficial do país, tendo como referência os preços médios de 2015. Os cálculos foram acompanhados por consultores de Orçamento do Congresso Nacional.

Source: Veja.com

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