Increased political uncertainty puts brake on credit

The crisis raises the caps and make the banks are even more conservative to lend.
21/03/2016 10h09 - Updated 21/03/2016 10h09
Photo: Beatriz Albuquerque / SEE

The deepening political crisis in Brazil should weigh on credit demand, already quite depressed, contributing to the paralysis of the economy at a time when discussing measures for the resumption of growth. Combined with the impact of the deterioration of unemployment, raising the caps and make the banks are even more conservative to lend, political instability brings an additional negative factor for the performance of portfolios in the first quarter, traditionally weaker.

In some banks, the most intense political climate and demonstrations are beginning to impact the demand for credit, as reported by executives of these institutions. In the report of the State of S. Paulo, one considers that the level of the previous months was already down and, therefore, the reflection so far is not so great. However, recalls that the current volatility, which has pushed the dollar against the real, It can affect the growth of the portfolio case, in the first quarter closing, the currency remains well below the December price, from 3,90 real.

Under the credit view, an executive of a large retail bank points out that the reflection of the current scenario extends to all, since the retiree will have a payroll to the entrepreneur who decides whether or not your business expands. “The lack of trust is negative. Besides all, creates more uncertainty still. This entire process (political) creates more volatility, which is very bad for the economy. We are now at a new level. The last time we had a similar process was in the midst of blocking capabilities, government Collor”, compare it.

investments, scarce, should not occur in the current context, with the credit being pulled, mainly, by working capital, necessary for day to day corporate. Although already restricted, the demand by individuals, who postponed buying decisions, and business, that every day fatten the list of applications for judicial recovery, with many closing doors, follows even shyer. In doubt, decisions are being postponed indefinitely, according to experts.

“The scenario of expansion or contraction of credit will worsen. The results of large banks can still hold two or three quarters, but show signs of deterioration”, evaluates the senior executive of an institution.

Impacted by the lack of confidence, which in recent weeks has worsened before unfolding Lava jet and the appointment of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva the Minister Chief of Staff, business demand for credit shrank 11,7% accumulated in the first quarter compared to the same period of 2015, according to data released this week by Serasa Experian. In the mood of households and businesses to take new loans, credit inverted high signal seen in December. According to the latest data from the Central Bank, the total balance fell 0,6% in January, for 3,199 billion reais.

At best, the credit will grow by only one digit in 2016, although the less optimistic scenario work with retraction of the portfolios. Last year, performance has stayed below the expected. For 2016, the most optimistic projections come from public banks, which in the past were the bridge for the government to stimulate credit and, consequently, to economy. While the Bank of Brazil hopes high 3% a 6%, Caixa Econômica Federal works with range 7% a 11%. Already Itaú Unibanco, the most pessimistic, admits retraction 0,5% on their loans and, no maximum, high of 4,5%. Bradesco expects advance 1% e 5%.


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