31/03/2016 10h29 - Updated 31/03/2016 10h29

BC admite estouro da meta de inflação este ano e vê queda de 3,5% stir START

For the first time, o Banco reconheceu que a inflação deste ano vai estourar o teto.
Photo: reproduction
Photo: reproduction

For the first time, or Central Bank (BC) reconheceu que a inflação deste ano vai estourar o teto da meta estipulada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN), from 6,5%. Segundo o Relatório Trimestral de Inflação (RTI), released on Thursday, o IPCA de 2016 ficará em 6,6%, e não mais em 6,2% como constava do documento de dezembro, pelo cenário de referência. No cenário de mercado, a taxa projetada passou de 6,3% for 6,9%.

A nova previsão vem mais alta, apesar de o BC ter a expectativa de uma inflação menor nos próximos meses, em especial dos preços administrados. A valorização do câmbio também tem indicado no início deste ano que pode colaborar com esse cenário.

No último Relatório de Mercado Focus, a mediana das previsões do mercado para o IPCA de 2016 caiu para 7,31%. Apesar de o levantamento ter mostrado a terceira semana consecutiva de queda das estimativas dos analistas do setor privado, a taxa ainda está acima do teto da meta para o ano.

On the report, o BC acrescentou que enxerga a alta de preços no centro da meta apenas no início de 2018, fora do objetivo que vem pregando de que esse movimento deve ocorrer em 2017. Against the backdrop, reiterou que não trabalha com a possibilidade de cortar a taxa básica de juros apesar da forte retração econômica e que fará o necessário para chegar ao seu intuito.

Em meio ao conturbado cenário político, a autoridade monetária também piorou fortemente a previsão de retração do Produto Interno Bruto (START) this year. Para o BC, a economia brasileira vai fechar 2016 com retração de 3,5%, contra previsão anterior de uma queda de 1,9%.

O BC informou ainda que as incertezas em relação ao cenário externo prosseguem, e novamente chamou a atenção para um processo de realinhamento de preços relativos mais demorado e intenso que o previsto.

A estimativa de recuo para a produção da indústria passou de 3,9% for 5,8% no encerramento deste ano. O setor de serviços deverá recuar 2,4%, ante previsão anterior de queda de 1,2%. A produção agropecuária deverá crescer 0,2%, ante estimativa anterior de 0,5%. Os investimentos vão levar um tombo de 13% this year, de acordo com as novas previsões do BC, before 9,5% na projeção anterior.

Os analistas do mercado financeiro estimam, ouvidos pelo Focus, esperam uma queda de 3,66% do PIB em 2016. No último relatório bimestral de receitas e despesas primárias, divulgado na semana passada, o governo projetou para o encerramento do ano uma retração um pouco mais modesta, from 3,05% no PIB.

Source: Veja.com

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