28/03/2016 10h24 - Updated 28/03/2016 10h24

Emprego e renda devem se deteriorar em 2016. Setor de serviços será mais afetado

As estatísticas apontam para o aumento no número de demissões em 2016 e encolhimento na renda dos trabalhadores.
Photo: Reinaldo Khanate / SEE
Photo: Reinaldo Khanate / SEE

Os dados sobre desemprego divulgados na última semana revelam uma mudança do perfil do ajuste no mercado de trabalho brasileiro, reflexo direto da recessão econômica. As estatísticas apontam para o aumento no número de demissões em 2016, além do encolhimento ainda maior na renda dos trabalhadores. Economistas ouvidos pela Agência Estado afirmam que este movimento se dará principalmente porque o setor de serviços, que se manteve resiliente por muitos meses, dá sinais mais evidentes de fraqueza. Por contratar grandes contingentes de trabalhadores, a deterioração do emprego neste segmento será determinante para o avanço da taxa de desocupação para a casa dos 12% still this year.

Na passagem de janeiro para fevereiro, o desemprego avançou de 7,6% for 8,2% nas seis principais regiões metropolitanas do país, segundo dados da Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego (SMEs), divulgada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).

Segundo Natalia Cotarelli, economista do banco ABC Brasil, a queda cada vez mais forte na atividade econômica é a responsável pelo maior número de cortes de empregados. In February, a população ocupada caiu 3,6% na comparação com igual mês de 2015, um tombo recorde. “Isso mostra que a recessão deve impactar o emprego neste ano de forma muito mais negativa do que aconteceu no ano passado”, estima Natália.

Por trás do aumento nas demissões, está a desaceleração mais intensa no setor de serviços. Por ser intensivo em mão de obra, a deterioração deste segmento acarretará no fechamento ainda maior de vagas nos próximos meses. O economista-chefe da Infinity Asset, Jason Vieira, considera que esta é uma mudança no perfil do ajuste que o mercado de trabalho atravessa, já que ao longo de 2015, a alta na taxa de desocupação foi resultado, mainly, da maior quantidade de pessoas procurando emprego, expandido a População Economicamente Ativa (PEA).

Para Vieira, as demissões devem crescer nos próximos meses devido ao cenário de forte incerteza ligado às indefinições dos rumos políticos do país. Rafael Leão, economista-chefe da Parallaxis Consultoria, concorda e considera que o ajuste no emprego seguiráa pleno vaporao longo do primeiro semestre e afetará a renda dos brasileiros ainda com mais força. “In February, todos os oito segmentos da atividade registraram queda na renda média na comparação anual”, highlighted.

According to the IBGE, o rendimento médio dos trabalhadores recuou 1,5% na margem e despencou 7,5% na comparação com fevereiro de 2015. Já a massa de rendimento médio real habitual dos ocupados foi estimada em R$ 50,8 bilhões em fevereiro, number 11,2% inferior ao do mesmo mês do ano passado. “Isso representa cerca de R$ 7 bilhões a menos circulando nas seis capitais pesquisadas pela PME”, calcula o economista-chefe da Parallaxis. A pesquisa abrange as regiões metropolitanas de Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, São Paulo e Recife.

Natália, do banco ABC Brasil, considera que o recuo na renda reforça a percepção de que a situação do brasileiro ébastante complicada”, mesmo para aqueles que continuam empregados. A specialist, ponders, However, que a queda da renda tem sido mais intensa nas metrópoles que no interior. Em contraste com a retração de 7,5% na comparação interanual revelada pela PME, a Pesquisa Nacional de Amostra por Domicílio (Pnad) Contínua mostrou uma diminuição de 2,0% na renda média no trimestre encerrado em dezembro de 2015, o último dado disponível, ante igual período de 2014.

A partir do próximo mês não será mais possível comparar a situação do mercado de trabalho das metrópoles com a do país como um todo. As informações de fevereiro foram as últimas divulgadas da PME, que passa a ser substituída pela Pnad Contínua, que conta com informações de 3,5 mil cidades do país. O desemprego medido por este levantamento ficou em 9,0% no quarto trimestre de 2015. Rafael Leão, da Parallaxis, estima que a taxa deve atingir o pico de 12,0% em novembro deste ano e se estabilizar em um nível elevado no segundo trimestre do ano que vem.

Source: Veja.com

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