02/05/2016 10h21 - Updated 2/05/2016 10h21

Mercado financeiro projeta inflação de 6,94% e queda da economia em 3,89%

Os números são do Boletim Focus, que é divulgado às segundas-feiras pelo Banco Central.
Photo: reproduction
Photo: reproduction

A projeção de instituições financeiras para a inflação este ano foi reduzida pela oitava semana consecutiva. This time, a estimativa para o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (HICP) it went from 6,98% for 6,94%. For 2017, a projeção foi reduzida de 5,80% for 5,72%, no quarto ajuste consecutivo. Os números são do Boletim Focus, que é divulgado às segundas-feiras pelo Banco Central (BC). Ele traz projeções de instituições financeiras consultadas semanalmente sobre os principais indicadores da economia.

Mesmo com as reduções, as estimativas estão acima do centro da meta de 4,5%. O limite superior da meta de inflação é 6,5%, this year and 6%, in 2017. É função do Banco Centra fazer com que a inflação fique dentro da meta. One of the instruments used to influence economic activity and inflation is the basic interest rate, the Selic.

Quando o Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central aumenta a Selic, a meta é conter a demanda aquecida, and that creates reflections in prices, because higher interest rates more expensive credit and stimulate savings. Already when the Copom reduced the basic interest, the trend is that credit becomes cheaper, to encourage the production and consumption, but the measure relieves the control over inflation.

The central bank has to find balance when making decisions on the basic interest rate, so as to cause the inflation is within the target set by the National Monetary Council.

A projeção das instituições financeiras para a Selic, the end of 2016, It was maintained at 13,25% per year. For the purpose of 2017, a expectativa passou de 12% for 11,75% per year. currently, the Selic is 14,25% per year.

Atividade econômica
The estimate for the fall of the Gross Domestic Product (START), the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, foi alterada de 3,88% for 3,89%, na décima quinta piora consecutiva. For 2017, a estimativa subiu de 0,30% for 0,40%, no segundo ajuste seguido.

A estimativa para a queda da produção industrial passou de 5,80% for 5,83%, this year. For 2017, a projeção de crescimento foi ajustada de 0,54% for 0,50%.

A projeção para a cotação do dólar passou de R$ 3,80 to R $ 3,72 ao fim deste ano, and R $ 4 to R $ 3,91, in order to 2017.

Source: Agency Brazil

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