06/06/2016 10h08 - Updated 6/06/2016 10h08

Market says inflation should end the year at 7,12%

The calculations are part of research done every week by BC, notice that the Focus Bulletin.
Photo: reproduction
Photo: reproduction

A projeção de instituições financeiras para a inflação este ano, measured by the National Index of Consumer Prices Broad (HICP), foi ajustada de 7,06% for 7,12%. For 2017, a projeção se manteve em 5,5%. Os cálculos fazem parte de pesquisa feita todas as semanas pelo Banco Central (BC), notice that the Focus Bulletin.

As estimativas estão acima do centro da meta de inflação, from 4,5%. O limite superior da meta inflacionária é de 6,5% this year and 6% in 2017. É função do Banco Central fazer com que a inflação fique dentro da meta. Um dos instrumentos usados para influenciar a atividade econômica e, consequently, a inflação, é a taxa básica de juros, the Selic.

Quando o Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central (Copom) aumenta a Selic, a meta é conter a demanda aquecida e isso gera reflexos nos preços, because higher interest rates more expensive credit and stimulate savings.

Equilíbrio
Quando o Copom reduz os juros básicos, the trend is that credit becomes cheaper, to encourage the production and consumption, but the measure relieves the control over inflation. The central bank has to find balance when making decisions on the basic interest rate, so as to cause the inflation is within the target set by the National Monetary Council.

A projeção das instituições financeiras para a Selic, the end of 2016, it's at 12,88% per year. For the purpose of 2017, a expectativa é de 11,25% per year. currently, the Selic is 14,25% ao ano e o Copom anuncia a tendência para os juros esta semana.

A estimativa de instituições financeiras para o encolhimento da economia este ano foi levemente ajustada. A projeção para a queda do Produto Interno Bruto (START), sum of all goods and services produced in the country, foi alterada de 3,81% for 3,71%. For 2017, a estimativa de crescimento passou de 0,55% for 0,85%.

Source: Agency Brazil

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