Bolsonaro tips rejection and go 26%; Haddad ties with Cyrus in the Northeast and reaches 10%, shows XP / Ipespe

Group of voters who say they would not vote for Bolsonaro falls 62% for 57% after attack, rate lower than Alckmin and Marina Silva
14/09/2018 10h03 - Updated 14/09/2018 15h56
Photo: reproduction

A week after being the victim of an attack to stabbing during a campaign rally in Juiz de Fora (MG), Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PAGE) He extended his advantage over opponents in the presidential race and saw your bounce rate ceases to be the highest among the candidates. This is shown by research XP Investimentos / IPESPE, conducted between 10 e 12 of September. According to the survey, parliamentary jumped 23% for 26% of the vote within one week and is now 14 percentage points ahead of Ciro Gomes (PDT), opponent in the best position in the race. The maximum error is 2 percentage points up or down.

The week was ocializado candidate – replacing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva -, former Mayor Fernando Haddad paulistano (PT) arrived at 10% of the vote in the first round stimulated scenario. This performance represents a positive swing 2 percentage points from the previous week's survey and a jump 4 points compared to survey two weeks ago.

With this performance, Haddad appears technically tied with three other candidates in the presidential race: the former governor of Ceara Ciro Gomes, what, for high three-week trend reached its highest level of the historical series, to 12%; former Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), that despite the large advantage in advertising time on radio and television, can not get out of 9%; and former senator Marina Silva (Network), giving signs of dehydration when leaving 13% two weeks ago to 8% now.

Among the factors contributing to the Haddad jump in recent polls, highlighting the good performance of the electorate tracks where Lulism is stronger, case of Northeastern, group in which the PT left 5% in August to 19%, in dead heat condition with Ciro Gomes, leader in the region with 21% of the vote. Haddad grew to 15% among voters with high school or elementary school. Two weeks ago, the support of this group to the applicant was only 4%. In the group with income of up to two minimum wages, the former mayor of São Paulo was 4% two weeks ago to 10%.

In another squad, four other candidates also punctuate. The entrepreneur John Amoêdo (New) and Senator Alvaro Dias (We can) has 4% of the vote each, technically tied with former Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles (MDB), with 2%, and historian Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), with 1%. For the limit of the margin of error, from 2 percentage points up or down, Amoêdo Days and are also technically tied with Marina Silva. Already the group of whites, null and undecided now sum 23% the electorate, down 4 points compared to the previous week.

Research XP / IPESPE showed that support for Bolsonaro also grew in the spontaneous scenario, when respondent says in those who intend to vote without it being nominated names. In this situation, Members are 20% of the vote. A week ago the rate was 16%. It appears behind the former president Lula, what, even prevented from participating in the contest due to the Clean Record Law, It is cited by 9% of voters.

The former president reached 19% spontaneous vote two weeks ago. Ciro Gomes appears 6% spontaneous indications of vote, numerically ahead of Haddad, with 5%. Alckmin has 4% this scenario, while has Amoêdo 3% and Marina has 2%, same percentage of Alvaro Dias. In this case, the group of “do not vote” It represents 47% the electorate, which also indicates the degree of unpredictability of this election. The survey also showed that, to three weeks of the first round, increased interest in the presidential election. Now, 59% of voters say they are very (34%) or more or less interested (25%). A week ago the sum of these groups represented 52% the electorate. The range of voters who say disinterested with the process, in turn, minguou de 26 % for 21%.

Second shift
They were tested six situations runoff in this research. As in the previous week, due to the increase in the number of interviews (from 1.000 for 2.000) and the consequent reduction of the error margin (from 3,2 p.p. for 2,2 p.p.), There modicação in the interpretation of some of the scenarios compared to older surveys.
In any dispute between Alckmin and Haddad, the toucan win by 38% of the vote, Against 28% for PT, with 35% white, null and undecided.

The difference between the two came to be 16 percentage points in favor of the PSDB candidate in three weeks. At no time was ahead Haddad.
In the case of a confrontation between Alckmin and Bolsonaro, the toucan appears numerically ahead for the second time in the series started in May, with a score of 37% a 36%, difference within the margin of error. whites, null and undecided add 26%. The difference between the candidates came to be 7 percentage points in favor of the parliament in the fourth week of May.

Two weeks ago, the two appeared tied with 35% of the vote.

In any dispute between Marina Silva and Bolsonaro, the setting is also dead heat, with the former senator numerically ahead by 37% a 36%. whites, null and undecided add 27%. The deputy was numerically ahead in the first two series of surveys, performed in the third and fourth weeks of May, when the difference came to be 6 pp, also within the limit of the sum of the margins of error at the time. Both are technically tied since the first survey, disclosed in 25 of May. If the second round was between Cyrus and Alckmin, both with empatariam 35% of votes each. whites, null and undecided would add 31%. It is the second time that candidates have the same percentage. The first had taken place in the last week of June. In no time one of the candidates had superior advantage to the limit of the sum of
their margins of error, but most of the time,

Alckmin was numerically ahead. If Bolsonaro and Ciro faced, the win with pedetista 40% of the vote, Against 35% parliamentary. whites, null and undecided would add 26%. It is the third time in the time series that Cyrus leads this simulation. Two weeks ago, pedetista had the advantage of only 2 pp. In the first two surveys, in May, Rep won with a difference greater than the sum of the margins of error. The survey also simulated a runoff between Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad. In this case, the picture is also dead heat, with Rep numerically ahead by a score of 40% a 38%. Never the difference was so small.

O Group Two “do not vote” soma 22%. In April, It bolsonaro come to rely on fat 11 pp.
Rejection of applicants The survey also asked respondents in which candidates would not vote in any way. Bolsonaro showed a signicant retreat 5 percentage points in the negative evaluation and left the leadership of this undesirable ranking. Now, It is rejected by the parliamentary 57% the electorate, same level registered in early August.

In front are Marina Silva, a rate of 64%, and Geraldo Alckmin, with 60%, the latter being in dead heat condition with Rep, near the limit of the sum of the margins of error for each. Still unknown by 16% of voters, Fernando Haddad
has the same rejection rate Bolsonaro, by unknown 5%. Ciro Gomes is repudiated by 56% of voters, Against 49% Alvaro Dias. Or Senator, however, It is unknown by 28%, Against 8% recorded side pedetista.

Methodology

The XP / IPESPE survey was conducted by phone, between the days 10 e 12 of September, and heard
2.000 respondents in all regions of the country. The questionnaires were administered “Live” by interviewers (with randomness in reading the names of the candidates in question stimulated) and subjected to later in scalização 20% cases for vericação responses. The sample represents all Brazilian voters with access to the telephone network xa (at home or work) and cell phone, under estraticação criteria for sex, age, level of education, family income etc..

The condence interval is 95,45%, what that signic, the questionnaire were applied more than once for the same period under the same conditions, this would be the chance of the result be repeated within the maximum error, established in 2,2 pp.

The survey is registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) the ode BR-07277/2018 and had a cost of R $ 60.000,00. The IPESPE conducts telephone surveys from 1993 and was the first institute in Brazil to conduct phone tracking in election campaigns, from 1998. The institute has as chairman of the board cientíco Antonio Lavareda sociologist and executive board, Marcela Montenegro.

In an interview with InfoMoney in 12 of June, Lavareda explained the differences in methodologies used by research institutes and defended the validity of surveys conducted both in person and on the phone, provided that in both cases the methodological procedures are followed rigorously, with well-constructed samples and weights and made.

Source: Info Money


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