20/07/2015 12h34 - Actualizado 20/07/2015 12h34

proyección de mercado para la inflación 2015 se eleva a 14 de tiempo corrido, para 9,15%

Hace un mes, essa projeção do Relatório Focus, do Banco Central, estava em 8,97%.
foto: reproducción
foto: reproducción

Pela 14ª rodada consecutiva, a estimativa para o IPCA deste ano avançou de 9,12% da semana anterior para 9,15% ahora. Hace un mes, essa projeção do Relatório Focus, do Banco Central, estava em 8,97%. No Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, o BC havia apresentado estimativa de 9% no cenário de referência e de 9,1% usando os parâmetros de mercado.

Para 2016, após duas semanas seguidas de redução, a mediana das projeções para o IPCA voltou a cair. O ponto central da pesquisa passou de 5,44% da semana passada para 5,40% ahora. O fim de 2016 é o foco da autoridade monetária neste momento, já que promete entregar a inflação no centro da meta daqui a pouco mais de um ano. O resultado da Focus, por lo tanto, vai em linha com o trabalho do BC nos últimos meses. Pelos cálculos da instituição revelados no Relatório Trimestral de Inflação, o IPCA ficará em 4,8% en 2016 no cenário de referência e em 5,1% no de mercado. A luta do BC no momento é tentar convencer o mercado de que chegará ao centro da meta em 2016.

Para a inflação de curto prazo, foi visto um aumento das estimativas para o IPCA de julho na pesquisa Focus, que subiu de 0,45% para 0,50% de uma semana para outra. No caso de agosto, sin embargo, a taxa estimada permaneceu em 0,30% no período.

As projeções para os preços administrados em 2015 voltaram a subir. A mediana passou de 14,90% para 15,00% ahora. Para 2016, a expectativa no boletim Focus apresentada hoje ficou inalterada, en 5,96%. De cualquier forma, essas projeções são mais pessimistas que a do Banco Central. Segundo o último Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, a autoridade monetária revisou de 11% para 13,7% sua expectativa para os preços administrados em 2015. Para 2016, a instituição manteve a previsão de alta de 5,3%, mesmo valor do relatório anterior, apresentado em março.

Recessão
Com a informação de que o IBC-Br ficou praticamente estável em maio depois de ter registrado quedas em março e abril, o mercado financeiro revisou para baixo suas projeções para o Produto Interno Bruto (INICIO) de 2015. A expectativa de retração de 1,50% no Relatório de Mercado Focus foi substituída por uma queda de 1,70% ahora. A perspectiva de recuperação da atividade no ano que vem também segue debilitada. Passou de 0,50%, onde estava há três edições do boletim Focus, para 0,33% el lunes.

O BC, apesar de também ter revisado para pior sua projeção, de queda de 0,6% para retração de 1,1%, segue mais otimista que o mercado. No Relatório Trimestral de Inflação de junho, a instituição informou que a mudança ocorreu em função de piora nas perspectivas para a indústria, cuja expectativa de PIB recuou de -2,3% para -3,0%.

Segundo o BC, essa piora foi influenciada por impactos das reduções projetadas para a indústria de transformação, de -3,4% para -6%, e para a produção e distribuição de eletricidade, agua y gas, de -1,4% para -5,6%, refletindo cenário de aumento da participação de termoelétricas na oferta de energia e de redução do consumo de água no primeiro trimestre do ano. Para o setor de serviços, a autoridade monetária, que até março via uma ligeira expansão de 0,1% en 2015, passou a projetar queda de 0,8%. No boletim Focus desta segunda-feira, a projeção para a produção industrial, sin embargo, foi mantida em baixa de 5,00%.

Juro
Mesmo indicadores recentes apontando para uma atividade mais fraca, o mercado financeiro manteve as expectativas para o comportamento da Selic deste ano. Fez alterações, sin embargo, para o rumo dos juros em 2016. Para os analistas, el Comité de Política Monetaria (Copom) continua mostrando previsão de alta de meio ponto da taxa básica de juros este mês, para 14,25% ao ano – atualmente a Selic está em 13,75% Pensilvania. Também deixou inalterada a projeção de que a Selic vai encerrar 2015 en 14,50% ao ano pela terceira semana consecutiva. Já para 2016, recuou de 12,25% ao ano para 12,00% a mediana das expectativas para a Selic. Con eso, a previsão volta para o patamar de um mês atrás.

Dólar
O Relatório de Mercado Focus não apresentou qualquer mudança para a trajetória do dólar neste e no próximo ano. A mediana das estimativas para o câmbio em 2015 foi mantida em R$ 3,23. Para o próximo ano, a mediana permaneceu em R$ 3,40 – mesmo patamar também verificado há um mês.

fuente: Estadão

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'f9e30ce7abfc8bb8d2a0452920e3e1' and lang = 'es' 351 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1007 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'Redação AM POST' and lang = 'es' 352 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 923 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'webmaster@ampost.com.br' and lang = 'es' 353 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 962 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'O AM POST é o maior portal de notícias do estado do Amazonas' and lang = 'es' 354 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 982 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'esporte' and lang = 'es' 355 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 988 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'jornais' and lang = 'es' 356 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 907 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'revistas' and lang = 'es' 357 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 990 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'biblioteca' and lang = 'es' 358 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 994 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'classificados' and lang = 'es' 359 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 982 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'compras' and lang = 'es' 360 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 987 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'computador' and lang = 'es' 361 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'corpo' and lang = 'es' 362 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'saúde' and lang = 'es' 363 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'moda' and lang = 'es' 364 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'carros' and lang = 'es' 365 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 905 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'cinema' and lang = 'es' 366 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 983 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'crianças' and lang = 'es' 367 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'diversão' and lang = 'es' 368 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 903 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'arte' and lang = 'es' 369 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 985 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'economia' and lang = 'es' 370 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 990 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'educação' and lang = 'es' 371 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 984 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'internet' and lang = 'es' 372 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'jogos' and lang = 'es' 373 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 981 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'novelas' and lang = 'es' 374 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'rádio' and lang = 'es' 375 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 983 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'tv' and lang = 'es' 376 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'tempo' and lang = 'es' 377 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 978 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'mapas' and lang = 'es' 378 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'trânsito' and lang = 'es' 379 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 918 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'últimas 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not cached | 907 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'opinião' and lang = 'es' 388 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 907 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'análise' and lang = 'es' 389 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 984 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'internet' and lang = 'es' 390 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'televisão' and lang = 'es' 391 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 909 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'fotografia' and lang = 'es' 392 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 905 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'imagem' and lang = 'es' 393 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 902 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'som' and lang = 'es' 394 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'áudio' and lang = 'es' 395 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'vídeo' and lang = 'es' 396 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 978 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'fotos' and lang = 'es' 397 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 991 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'tecnologia' and lang = 'es' 398 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 990 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'vestibular' and lang = 'es' 399 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 983 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'empregos' and lang = 'es' 400 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'humor' and lang = 'es' 401 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 982 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'música' and lang = 'es' 402 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'pt-br' and lang = 'es' 403 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'text/html' and lang = 'es' 404 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 912 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'charset=UTF-8' and lang = 'es' 405 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 1052 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'Projeção do mercado para inflação em' and lang = 'es' 406 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1028 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'sobe pela 14ª vez seguida' and lang = 'es' 407 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'para' and lang = 'es' 408 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 409 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 999 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/2015/07/projecao-do-mercado-para-inflacao-em-2015-sobe-pela-14a-vez-seguida-para-915/' and lang = 'es' 410 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 411 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 960 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/inflação-Copy.jpg' and lang = 'es' 412 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 906 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'article' and lang = 'es' 413 | 0 | enabled | cached | 987 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'AM POST' and lang = 'es' 414 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 919 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'summary_large_image' and lang = 'es' 415 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1052 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 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mês' and lang = 'es' 423 | 0 | enabled | cached | 935 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'essa projeção do Relatório Focus' and lang = 'es' 424 | 0 | enabled | cached | 915 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'do Banco Central' and lang = 'es' 425 | 0 | enabled | cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'estava em' and lang = 'es' 426 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 427 | 0 | enabled | cached | 999 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/2015/07/projecao-do-mercado-para-inflacao-em-2015-sobe-pela-14a-vez-seguida-para-915/' and lang = 'es' 428 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 429 | 0 | enabled | cached | 960 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 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wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 445 | 0 | enabled | cached | 999 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/2015/07/projecao-do-mercado-para-inflacao-em-2015-sobe-pela-14a-vez-seguida-para-915/' and lang = 'es' 446 | 0 | enabled | cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'brasil' and lang = 'es' 447 | 0 | enabled | cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'dólar' and lang = 'es' 448 | 0 | enabled | cached | 909 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'inflação' and lang = 'es' 449 | 0 | enabled | cached | 906 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'mercado' and lang = 'es' 450 | 0 | enabled | cached | 985 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'negócios' and lang = 'es' 451 | 0 | enabled | cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 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