10/08/2015 11h31 - Actualizado 10/08/2015 11h31

Mercado prevê maior inflação para este ano desde 2002

Os grandes vilões são os reajustes nas contas de luz e água.
foto: Ricardo Matsukawa / SEE
foto: Ricardo Matsukawa / SEE

O mercado financeiro voltou a elevar nesta segunda-feira a projeção da inflação para 2015, desta vez de 9,25% para 9,32%. Além de ser o décimo sétimo consecutivo, o aumento é significativo, porque, se a expectativa se confirmar, esta será a maior inflação desde 2002, quando o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IAPC) chegou à marca de 12,53%. Antes, esperava-se que o IPCA deste ano seria o maior desde 2003, quando atingiu 9,30%.

As informações constam no boletim Focus, divulgado às segundas pelo Banco Central e produzido a partir das estimativas de mais cem instituições financeiras.

Según el Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE), os grandes vilões da inflação são o reajuste nas contas de luz e água, e a alta no preço dos alimentos. De acordo com o último relatório do Banco Central (antes de Cristo), a valorização do dólar frente ao real também tem pressionado os preços a subirem no país.

Os analistas também voltaram a projetar uma piora no nível da atividade econômica brasileira. La semana pasada, a estimativa de queda no Produto Interno Bruto (INICIO) era de 1,80%. ahora, a previsão é de um recuo de 1,97% – esta foi a quarta vez que o indicador foi revisto para baixo. Se concretizado, será o pior resultado do PIB desde 1990, quando chegou a uma retração de 4,35%.

Em relação aos juros, um dos principais instrumentos usados pelo governo para conter a inflação, o mercado voltou a prever que a taxa básica (la tasa Selic) encerrará o ano em 14,25%, em linha com o reajuste feito na última reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) na semana retrasada.

Com a deterioração da economia neste ano, o mercado também piorou as estimativas para 2016. Os analistas agora preveem uma inflação de 5,43%, ante 5,40% la semana pasada; e um PIB estacionado no zerono último boletim, a projeção era de crescimento de 0,20%.

fuente: Veja.com

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