03/08/2015 12h20 - Actualizado 3/08/2015 12h20

De proyección llega recesión económica 1,8%

Na avaliação do mercado financeiro, a produção industrial deve ter queda de 5%, este año
foto: reproducción
foto: reproducción

Instituições financeiras consultadas semanalmente pelo Banco Central (antes de Cristo) pioraram pela terceira vez seguida as estimativas para a economia este ano. De esta vez, a projeção para a queda do Produto Interno Bruto (INICIO), la suma de todos los bienes y servicios producidos en el país, Pasó de 1,76% para 1,8%. Para 2016, a projeção é leve crescimento de 0,2%, a mesma estimativa da semana passada.

Na avaliação do mercado financeiro, a produção industrial deve ter queda de 5%, este ano e crescimento de 1,30%, en 2016.

As projeções para a inflação também pioraram. A estimativa do mercado financeiro para o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IAPC) subiu pela 16ª vez seguida, para pasar 9,23% para 9,25% este año. en 2016, a expectativa é que o índice fique em 5,40%, a mesma projeção da semana passada.

As projeções para a inflação estão acima do centro da meta, 4,5%. mi, no caso de 2015, a estimativa supera também o teto da meta, 6,5%. O BC tem dito que entregará a inflação no centro da meta somente em 2016. Para alcançar esse objetivo, el Comité de Política Monetaria (Copom) elevou a taxa básica de juros, la tasa Selic, por sete vezes consecutivas. Actualmente, la tasa Selic es 14,25% Pensilvania.

La tasa se utiliza en la negociación de los títulos públicos en el Sistema Especial de Liquidación y Custodia (Selic) e serve como referência para as demais taxas de juros da economia. Ao reajustá-la, o BC contém o excesso de demanda que pressiona os preços, debido a mayores tasas de interés más caro de crédito y estimular el ahorro. Cuando se reduce el interés básico, Copom abarata el crédito y fomenta la producción y el consumo, mas alivia o controle sobre a inflação. A pesar de que ayuda en el control de los precios, o aumento da taxa Selic prejudica a economia, que atravessa um ano de recessão, com queda na produção e no consumo.

A pesquisa do BC também traz a projeção para a inflação medida pelo Índice Geral de Preços – Disponibilidade Interna (IGP-DI), que pasó de 7,69% para 7,67% este año. Para o Índice Geral de Preços – Mercado (IGP-M), a estimativa subiu de 7,52% para 7,64% en 2015. A estimativa para o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor, da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (IPC-Fipe), Pasó de 8,74% para 8,76% este año.

A projeção para a cotação do dólar subiu de R$ 3,25 para R$ 3,35, para 2015, e de R$ 3,40 para R$ 3,49, para 2016.

fuente: Agencia Brasil

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