14/09/2015 09h28 - Actualizado 14/09/2015 09h28

Mercado de la contracción esperada 2,55% no PIB de 2015

Voltou a piorar as projeções do desempenho da atividade econômica.
foto: Yasuyoshi Chiba / AFP / SEE
foto: Yasuyoshi Chiba / AFP / SEE

Após uma semana de más notícias no cenário econômico, com a perda do grau de investimento e a demora do governo em anunciar medidas para cobrir o rombo do orçamento, o mercado voltou a piorar as projeções do desempenho da atividade econômica do país para 2015 mi 2016.

Segundo boletim Focus, divulgado nesta segunda-feira, os analistas agora preveem uma retração de 2,55% no Produto Interno Bruto (INICIO) este año – antes, era de 2,44%. Para 2016, o recuo previsto passou de 0,5% para 0,6%. Trata-se da nona e da sexta semana consecutiva, respectivamente, em que os indicadores são empurrados para baixo. Se for confirmado, será o pior resultado da economia brasileira desde 1990, quando o PIB recuou 4,35%.

Na quarta-feira passada, a agência de classificação de risco Standard & Poor’s retirou o grau de investimento do país. A notícia já era esperada diante da deterioração do quadro econômico, mas ocorreu mais cedo do se que imaginava tanto por parte do mercado como do governo. O Planalto agora corre contra o tempo para anunciar medidas que cubrampelo menos em parteo déficit de 30,5 bilhões de reais previstos no Orçamento de 2016. O objetivo é evitar um novo rebaixamento do rating brasileiro pelas outras duas principais agências, a Fitch e a Moody’s.

Em relação ao Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IAPC), que mede a inflação oficial, os analistas projetaram um leve recuo, de 9,29% para 9,28%. Así mismo, se for confirmada a expectativa, a inflação chegará ao seu maior nível desde 2003 – além de estar muito longe do teto da meta, de 6,5%. A ligeira redução acompanha o dado divulgado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) na quinta passada. Segundo o instituto, a inflação desacelerou em agosto, tendo alta de 0,22% ante 0,62% no mês anterior. Mas no acumulado dos últimos doze meses até agosto, a taxa alcançou a marca de 9,53%. Para 2016, sin embargo, o mercado elevou a previsão do IPCA de 5,58% para 5,64%, sendo esta a sexta vez seguida que o indicador é reajustado.

Em relação à taxa básica de juros (la tasa Selic), uma das principais ferramentas usadas pelo governo para conter a inflação, a previsão é que ela se mantenha em 14,25% até o fim do ano, em linha com o último reajuste feito pelo Banco Central. Para 2016, o mercado aposta numa redução gradativa da Selic até chegar à casa dos 12%.

O mercado também piorou as perspectivas para a taxa de câmbio neste ano. Os analistas projetam que o dólar encerre o ano a 3,70 real, ante estimativa de 3,60 la semana pasada. El viernes, a divisa americana fechou cotada a 3,87 real.

O boletim Focus é produzido com a estimativa de mais de cem instituições financeiras e divulgado às segundas pelo Banco Central.

fuente: Veja.com

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