30/12/2015 10h31 - Actualizado 30/12/2015 10h31

Brasil terá novo rombo nas contas públicas em 2016, dizem economistas

Para ellos, o próximo ano será, una vez más, de desequilíbrio nas contas públicas.
foto: Marcelo Sayão/EFE/VEJA
foto: Marcelo Sayão/EFE/VEJA

O próximo ano será, una vez más, de desequilíbrio nas contas públicas, o que tende a comprometer o cumprimento da meta de superávit primário (a economia para o pagamento de juros da dívida). Esta é a avaliação de economistas, após a divulgação, el martes, de um rombo recorde nas contas do governo em novembro.

O governo se comprometeu a poupar em 2016 o equivalente a 0,5% do Produto interno Bruto (INICIO). “Vai ficar muito difícil para novo ministro cumprir a meta de superávit fiscal de 2016. Acho que ano vem vamos voltar a ter déficit”, diz o economista José Luis Oreiro. Ele lembra que o resultado de dezembro deveria até ser melhor. “Sempre temos no fim do ano as receitas não recorrentes: vem aí, por ejemplo, a distribuição de lucros do BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Económico y Social)”, dice.

Sin embargo, o cenário vai mudar caso o governo leve adiante a proposta de pagar as chamadas “pedaleo impuestos” (artifícios contábeis que protelam o pagamento de gastos e dão a impressão de que o resultado das contas públicas é melhor do que o real). “Com o pagamento das pedaladas, o resultado de dezembro vai ser pior, muito pior. Habrá más de 50 bilhões de reais só de pedaladas e, tan, teremos um déficit primário da ordem de 60 bilhões de reais.Oreiro considera esse sacrifício positivo, pois liquida os passivos. Sin embargo, a medida não trará alívio para o próximo ano.

O segundo dado negativo foi a presidente Dilma Rousseff ter sacramentado o reajuste do salário mínimo em 11,6% a partir de primeiro de janeiro. “O reajuste do mínimo vai elevar despesas trabalhistas e assistenciais, principalmente as da previdência”, lembra Fábio Klein, analista de finanças públicas da Tendências Consultoria Integrada. As despesas da previdência respondem por quase metade dos gastos obrigatórios.

Na avaliação de Felipe Salto, economista e especialista em contas públicas, a regra deveria ser revista. “É preciso rediscutir as indexações”, dice. “Además, a dívida pública crescente combinada com a inflação descontrolada anulam os aparentes efeitos positivos do aumento.

fuente: Veja.com

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