21/03/2016 10h09 - Actualizado 21/03/2016 10h09

El aumento de la incertidumbre política pone freno en el crédito

A crise eleva os calotes e faz os bancos serem ainda mais conservadores para emprestar.
foto: Beatriz Albuquerque / SEE
foto: Beatriz Albuquerque / SEE

O aprofundamento da crise política no Brasil deve pesar na demanda por crédito, já bastante deprimida, contribuindo para a paralisação da economia em um momento em que se discutem medidas para a retomada do crescimento. Associado ao impacto da deterioração do desemprego, que eleva os calotes e faz os bancos serem ainda mais conservadores para emprestar, a instabilidade política traz um fator negativo adicional para o desempenho das carteiras no primeiro trimestre, tradicionalmente mais fraco.

Em alguns bancos, o clima político mais intenso e as manifestações já começam a impactar a demanda por crédito, conforme relatam executivos dessas instituições. À reportagem do Estado de S. Paul, um deles pondera que o patamar dos meses anteriores já estava baixo e que, por lo tanto, o reflexo até o momento ainda não é tão grande. Sin embargo, lembra que a volatilidade atual, que tem pressionado o dólar em relação ao real, pode afetar o crescimento das carteiras caso, no fechamento do primeiro trimestre, a moeda fique muito abaixo da cotação de dezembro, de 3,90 real.

Sob o ponto de vista de crédito, um executivo de um grande banco de varejo destaca que o reflexo do cenário atual se estende para todos, desde o aposentado que vai tomar um consignado até o empresário que decide se amplia seu negócio ou não. “A falta de confiança é negativa. Además de todo, cria mais incerteza ainda. Todo esse processo (político) gera mais volatilidade, o que é muito ruim para a economia. Já estamos em um nível inédito. A última vez que tivemos um processo parecido foi em meio ao bloqueio de recursos, no governo Collor”, compara ele.

Os investimentos, já escassos, não devem ocorrer no contexto atual, com o crédito sendo puxado, principalmente, pelo capital de giro, necessário para o dia a dia corporativo. Embora já restrita, a demanda por parte de indivíduos, que postergaram decisões de compra, e das empresas, que a cada dia engordam a lista de pedidos de recuperação judicial, com muitas fechando as portas, segue ainda mais tímida. Na dúvida, as decisões estão sendo adiadas por tempo indeterminado, de acordo com especialistas.

O cenário de expansão ou contração de crédito se agravará. Os resultados dos grandes bancos ainda podem segurar uns dois ou três trimestres, mas mostrarão sinais de deterioração”, avalia o executivo do alto escalão de uma instituição.

Retomada
Impactada pela falta de confiança, que nas últimas semanas piorou diante de desdobramentos da Lava Jato e da nomeação do ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a ministro chefe da Casa Civil, a demanda das empresas por crédito encolheu 11,7% no acumulado do primeiro bimestre ante mesmo período de 2015, de acordo com dados divulgados nesta semana pelo Serasa Experian. Com a menor disposição de famílias e empresas em tomar novos empréstimos, o crédito inverteu o sinal de alta visto em dezembro. Segundo os dados mais recentes do Banco Central, o saldo total recuou 0,6% en enero, para 3,199 bilhões reais.

Na melhor das hipóteses, o crédito crescerá apenas um dígito em 2016, embora os menos otimistas trabalhem com cenário de retração das carteiras. El año pasado, o desempenho já ficou abaixo do previsto. Para 2016, as projeções mais otimistas vêm dos bancos públicos, que no passado foram ponte para o governo estimular o crédito e, por consiguiente, a economia. Enquanto o Banco do Brasil espera alta de 3% un 6%, a Caixa Econômica Federal trabalha com intervalo de 7% un 11%. Já o Itaú Unibanco, o mais pessimista, admite retração de 0,5% em seus empréstimos e, no máximo, alta de 4,5%. O Bradesco espera avanço de 1% mi 5%.

fuente: Veja.com

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