05/05/2016 09h36 - Actualizado 5/05/2016 09h36

Dólar perto de R$ 3,50 preocupa futuro governo

A avaliação é que, abaixo desse valor, produtos brasileiros perdem a competitividade.
foto: reproducción
foto: reproducción

O recuo da cotação do dólar para níveis próximos a 3,50 reais começa a preocupar a equipe do vice-presidente Michel Temer. A avaliação é que, abaixo desse valor, alguns produtos brasileiros perdem competitividade no mercado internacional. De esa forma, fica em risco o processo de recuperação das contas externas iniciado no ano passado. De enero a abril de este año, a balança comercial registrou um saldo positivo de 13,249 millones de reales, ante déficit de 5,059 bilhões de reais em igual período de 2015.

É fato que esse desempenho se deu mais pela queda das importações. Mas as exportações ensaiam uma reação. Este año, os volumes de vendas de produtos básicos avançaram 23%, a de produtos semimanufaturados avançaram 15,7% e os manufaturados, 12,7%.

Há uma certa inquietude entre os exportadores, porque o câmbio a 3,50 reais não dá o mesmo ânimo exportador quanto o câmbio a 4 real”, comentou o ex-secretário executivo da Câmara de Comércio Exterior (Camex) Roberto Giannetti da Fonseca. Ele tem colaborado com o PSDB na elaboração de propostas para a área.

As exportações são vistas, pela equipe de Temer, como um pilar para a recuperação da economia. Foi por essa razão que o vice-presidente convidou o senador José Serra (PSDB-SP) para comandar um Ministério das Relações Exteriores vitaminado, que teria a parte comercial fortalecida com a migração de parte da estrutura do que hoje é o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Industria y Comercio Exterior (MDIC).

O restante seguiria para o Ministério do Planejamento e a pasta seria extinta. Essa ideia, sin embargo, enfrentou resistências das entidades representativas da indústria, de forma que Temer agora está reavaliando a mudança.

Os exportadores sabem que o governo não poderá, de imediato, garantir um dólar mais favorável a eles. Isso porque o Banco Central precisa aproveitar a cotação menor para perseguir outros dois objetivos: buscar um alívio na inflação e tentar desmontar operações de compra e venda futura de dólares, que ameaçam impor prejuízos bilionários ao Tesouro Nacional.

Feito isso, haveria espaço para um eventual governo Temer operar uma flutuação cambialmais livre e confiável”. Só então, avalia Giannetti, os exportadores poderão esperar uma valorização gradual do real ante o dólar, para a faixa dos 3,80 un 4 real.

fuente: Veja.com

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