01/06/2016 10h50 - Actualizado 1/06/2016 10h50

PIB se contrae 0,3% no 1º trimestre, e país completa 2 años en recesión

Pelo lado da demanda, o consumo das famílias teve queda de 1,7% en el primer trimestre.
foto: reproducción
foto: reproducción

Depois de encerrar 2015 na maior recessão dos últimos 25 años, a economia brasileira encolheu menos do que o previsto no primeiro trimestre deste ano —o último ainda integralmente sob comando do governo Dilma Rousseff, afastada em 12 mayo.

O PIB (Producto Interno Bruto), medida da renda de bens e serviços produzidos no país, teve queda de 0,3% nos três primeiros meses de 2016 frente ao quarto trimestre do ano passado. Con eso, somou R$ 1,47 billones.

O resultado veio melhor que o esperado pelo mercado. Economistas consultados pela agência internacional Bloomberg esperavam uma retração de 0,8% da atividade econômica frente ao quarto trimestre.

Conforme os dados divulgados na manhã desta quarta-feira (1º) por el IBGE, a intensidade da queda foi também menor do que a verificada no fim do ano passado, quando a economia havia registrado uma retração de 1,3% (dado foi revisado de uma queda de 1,4% ).

Pelos critérios da FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas), o ciclo de contração da atividade econômica, iniciado no segundo trimestre de 2014, ainda no primeiro mandato de Dilma, completou agora dois anos (oito trimestres).

A recessão começou no segundo trimestre de 2014, con la caída de 1,2%. No terceiro e quarto trimestre de 2014, o PIB ficou estagnado (0% mi 0,2%, respectivamente). entonces, caiu por cinco trimestres seguidos.

Isso significa que o país continua empobrecendo, ainda que menos do que o previsto no trimestre. Os empresários cortaram investimentos, as famílias consumiram menos. São consequência de erros na condução da economia que geraram desemprego, inflação e incertezas.

Segundo a gerente de Contas Nacionais do IBGE, Rebeca Palis, a queda do PIB frente ao mesmo período do ano passado estava se intensificando nos últimos trimestres. De esta vez, esse movimento foi menor.

A taxa continuou na casa dos 5%, mas foi um pouco menor. En el primer trimestre, fue 5,4%, menor que os 5,9% do quarto trimestre. Con eso, a queda na série com ajuste trimestral [frente ao trimestre imediatamente anterior ficou menor no primeiro trimestre de 2016”, dicho.

DEMANDA
Pelo lado da demanda, o consumo das famílias teve queda de 1,7% en el primer trimestre, frente aos três meses anteriores. Na comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado, o recuo foi mais intenso, de 6,3%.

O consumo das famílias cai em meio ao aumento da inflação, a queda da renda e o crédito mais seletivo por parte dos bancos. A taxa de desemprego nacional foi de 10,9% en el primer trimestre de 2016.

Outro importante componente da demanda do país, os investimentos registraram retração de 2,7% no primeiro trimestre frente aos três meses anteriores. Essa queda foi de 17,5% na comparação em base anual.

Uma exceção pela ótica da oferta veio dos gastos do governo (esferas municipais, estaduais e federal). Houve crescimento de 1,1% ante o quarto trimestre do ano passado e queda de 1,4% na comparação com igual período de 2015.

OFERTA
Sem estímulos pelo lado da demanda, o PIB da indústria e dos serviços voltaram a encolher. O PIB industrial recuou 1,2% frente ao fim do ano passado. Essa queda foi ainda maior quando comparada ao primeiro trimestre do ano passado (-7,3%).

O PIB de serviços (abrangente grupo que inclui atividades como comércio, seguros, transporte y educación) teve uma baixa de 0,2% frente ao quarto trimestre de 2015. Foi a quinta baixa consecutiva, inédito na série da pesquisa, de 1996.

A agropecuária, por otra parte, surpreendeu negativamente ao ter uma leve queda de 0,3% frente ao trimestre anterior e de 3,7% ano o mesmo período do ano passado.

REVISÕES
O IBGE divulgou nesta quarta-feira a revisão do resultado do PIB de trimestres anteriores. A maior mudança ocorreu no resultado do PIB do primeiro trimestre do ano passado. A queda passou de 0,8% para 1,2%. O sea, foi mais intensa.

Outros revisões foram feitas nos resultados dos três trimestres posteriores: o segundo trimestre (-2,1% para -2%), o terceiro trimestre (-1,7% para -1,6%) e o quarto trimestre de 2015 (de -1,4% para -1,3%), segundo divulgou o IBGE.

FUTURO
A retomada do crescimento econômico segue incerta. Economistas começam a perceber sinais de que a economia brasileira começou a caminhar para uma estabilização, citando melhora no número de emplacamentos de carros e nível de estoques.

Em relatório, o Itaú prevê uma nova queda do PIB no segundo trimestre deste ano e umarelativa estabilidadea partir disso. apesar de eso, o banco prevê uma retração de 4% do PIB brasileiro em 2016.

fuente: Folha de S. Paulo

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enabled | not cached | 981 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'novelas' and lang = 'es' 439 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'rádio' and lang = 'es' 440 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 983 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'tv' and lang = 'es' 441 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 979 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'tempo' and lang = 'es' 442 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 978 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'mapas' and lang = 'es' 443 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'trânsito' and lang = 'es' 444 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 918 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'últimas notícias' and lang = 'es' 445 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 905 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'viagem' and lang = 'es' 446 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 909 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'jornalismo' and lang = 'es' 447 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 911 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'informação' and lang = 'es' 448 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 907 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'notícia' and lang = 'es' 449 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 982 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'cultura' and lang = 'es' 450 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 999 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'entretenimento' and lang = 'es' 451 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'lazer' and lang = 'es' 452 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 907 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'opinião' and lang 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translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'vídeo' and lang = 'es' 461 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 978 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'fotos' and lang = 'es' 462 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 991 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'tecnologia' and lang = 'es' 463 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 990 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'vestibular' and lang = 'es' 464 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 983 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'empregos' and lang = 'es' 465 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'humor' and lang = 'es' 466 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 982 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'música' and lang = 'es' 467 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'pt-br' and lang = 'es' 468 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 908 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'text/html' and lang = 'es' 469 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 912 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'charset=UTF-8' and lang = 'es' 470 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 995 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'PIB encolhe' and lang = 'es' 471 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 1002 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'no 1º trimestre' and lang = 'es' 472 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1002 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'e país completa' and lang = 'es' 473 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1006 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'anos em recessão' and lang = 'es' 474 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 475 | 0.0003 | enabled | not cached | 933 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/2016/06/pib-encolhe' and lang = 'es' 476 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 951 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'no-1o-trimestre-e-pais-completa-2-anos-em-recessao/' and lang = 'es' 477 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 478 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 953 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/pib-Copy.jpg' and lang = 'es' 479 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 906 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'article' and lang = 'es' 480 | 0 | enabled | cached | 987 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'AM POST' and lang = 'es' 481 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 919 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'summary_large_image' and lang = 'es' 482 | 0 | enabled | cached | 995 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'PIB encolhe' and lang = 'es' 483 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1002 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'no 1º trimestre' and lang = 'es' 484 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1002 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'e país completa' and lang = 'es' 485 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1006 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'anos em recessão' and lang = 'es' 486 | 0 | enabled | cached | 918 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'Depois de encerrar' and lang = 'es' 487 | 0 | enabled | cached | 931 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'na maior recessão dos últimos' and lang = 'es' 488 | 0 | enabled | cached | 977 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'anos' and lang = 'es' 489 | 0.0002 | enabled | not cached | 1034 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'a economia brasileira encolheu menos do que o previsto no primeiro trimestre deste ano —o último ainda integralmente sob comando do' and lang = 'es' 490 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 491 | 0 | enabled | cached | 933 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/2016/06/pib-encolhe' and lang = 'es' 492 | 0 | enabled | cached | 951 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'no-1o-trimestre-e-pais-completa-2-anos-em-recessao/' and lang = 'es' 493 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 494 | 0 | enabled | cached | 953 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/pib-Copy.jpg' and lang = 'es' 495 | 0 | enabled | cached | 987 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'AM POST' and lang = 'es' 496 | 0 | enabled | cached | 920 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'Pelo lado da demanda' and lang = 'es' 497 | 0 | enabled | cached | 937 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'o consumo das famílias teve queda de' and lang = 'es' 498 | 0 | enabled | cached | 1014 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'no primeiro trimestre' and lang = 'es' 499 | 0.0002 | enabled | not cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'brasil' and lang = 'es' 500 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 985 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'economia' and lang = 'es' 501 | 0.0002 | enabled | not cached | 902 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'fgv' and lang = 'es' 502 | 0.0002 | enabled | not cached | 903 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ibge' and lang = 'es' 503 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 902 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'pib' and lang = 'es' 504 | 0.0001 | enabled | cached | 987 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'AM POST' and lang = 'es' 505 | 0.0001 | enabled | not cached | 904 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'es-ES' and lang = 'es' 506 | 0 | enabled | cached | 976 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'http' and lang = 'es' 507 | 0 | enabled | cached | 933 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'ampost.com.br/2016/06/pib-encolhe' and lang = 'es' 508 | 0 | enabled | cached | 951 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'no-1o-trimestre-e-pais-completa-2-anos-em-recessao/' and lang = 'es' 509 | 0 | enabled | cached | 980 | SELECT translated, source FROM wp_translations WHERE original = 'brasil' 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